2016 Oscar Predictions

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The 88th Academy Awards take place Sunday, February 28th. Included below are my predictions for all 24 categories.

Best Picture 

‘The Big Short’

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Brooklyn’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Room’

‘Spotlight’

Will win: ‘The Revenant’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Director


Lenny Abrahamson, ‘Room’

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, ‘The Revenant’

Tom McCarthy, ‘Spotlight’

Adam McKay, ‘The Big Short’

George Miller, ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, ‘The Revenant’

Should win: George Miller, ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Actor


Bryan Cranston, ‘Trumbo’

Matt Damon, ‘The Martian’

Leonardo DiCaprio, ‘The Revenant’

Michael Fassbender, ‘Steve Jobs’

Eddie Redmayne, ‘The Danish Girl’

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, ‘The Revenant’

Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, ‘The Revenant’

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, ‘Carol’

Brie Larson, ‘Room’

Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Joy’

Charlotte Rampling, ‘45 Years’

Saoirse Ronan, ‘Brooklyn’

Will win: Brie Larson, ‘Room’

Should win: Brie Larson, ‘Room’

 

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, ‘The Big Short’

Tom Hardy, ‘The Revenant’

Mark Ruffalo, ‘Spotlight’

Mark Rylance, ‘Bridge of Spies’

Sylvester Stallone, ‘Creed’

Will win: Sylvester Stallone, ‘Creed’

Should win: Sylvester Stallone, ‘Creed’

 

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, ‘The Hateful Eight’

Rooney Mara, ‘Carol’

Rachel McAdams, ‘Spotlight’

Alicia Vikander, ‘The Danish Girl’

Kate Winslet, ‘Steve Jobs’

Will win: Alicia Vikander, ‘The Danish Girl’

Should win: Rooney Mara, ‘Carol’

 

Best Foreign Language Film


‘Embrace of the Serpent’

‘Mustang’

‘Son of Saul’

‘Theeb’

‘A War’

Will win: ‘Son of Saul’

Should win: ‘Mustang’

 

Best Documentary Feature


‘Amy’

‘Cartel Land’

‘The Look of Silence’

‘What Happened, Miss Simone?’

‘Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom’

Will win: ‘Amy’

Should win: ‘Amy’

 

Best Animated Feature


‘Anomalisa’

‘Boy and the World’

‘Inside Out’

‘Shaun the Sheep Movie’

‘When Marnie Was There’

Will win: ‘Inside Out’

Should win: ‘Anomalisa’

 

Best Original Screenplay

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Ex Machina’

‘Inside Out’

‘Spotlight’

‘Straight Outta Compton’

Will win: ‘Spotlight’

Should win: ‘Spotlight’

 

Best Adapted Screenplay


‘The Big Short’

‘Brooklyn’

‘Carol’

‘The Martian’

‘Room’

Will win: ‘The Big Short’

Should win: ‘Carol’

 

Best Cinematography


‘Carol’

‘The Hateful Eight’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Revenant’

‘Sicario’

Will win: ‘The Revenant’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling


‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared’

‘The Revenant’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Original Score

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Carol’

‘The Hateful Eight’

‘Sicario’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘The Hateful Eight’

Should win: ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

 

Best Film Editing

‘The Big Short’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Revenant’

‘Spotlight’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Production Design

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘The Danish Girl’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Sound Editing

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Sicario’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Sound Mixing

‘Bridge of Spies’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Visual Effects

‘Ex Machina’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Martian’

‘The Revenant’

‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Will win: ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Costume Design


‘Carol’

‘Cinderella’

‘The Danish Girl’

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

‘The Revenant’

Will win: ‘Cinderella’

Should win: ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’

 

Best Original Song

Earned It (The Weeknd), ‘Fifty Shades of Grey’

Manta Ray (J. Ralph), ‘Racing Extinction’

Simple Song #3 (David Lang), ‘Youth’

Til It Happens To You (Lady Gaga), ‘The Hunting Ground’

Writing’s On The Wall (Sam Smith), ‘Spectre’

Will win: Til It Happens To You (Lady Gaga), ‘The Hunting Ground’

Should win: Til It Happens To You (Lady Gaga), ‘The Hunting Ground’

 

Best Live Action Short


‘Ave Maria’

‘Day One’

‘Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)’

‘Shok’

‘Stutterer’

Will win: ‘Ave Maria’

Should win: ‘Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)’

 

Best Animated Short


‘Bear Story’

‘Prologue’

‘Sanjay’s Super Team’

‘We Can’t Live without Cosmos’

‘World of Tomorrow’

Will win: ‘Sanjay’s Super Team’

Should win: ‘World of Tomorrow’

 

Best Documentary Short


‘Body Team 12’

‘Chau, beyond the Lines’

‘Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah’

‘A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness’

‘Last Day of Freedom’

Will win: ‘Body Team 12’

Should win: I plead the fifth!!

 

When I saw ‘Spotlight’ at TIFF15 in September, I was certain that it was the frontrunner for Best Picture. It probably was until just recently. This small-scale film now faces stiff competition against ‘The Revenant’, the $135 million art film that has grossed $365 million worldwide and is still going strong in its ninth week of release. It won the top award at the DGA, which is a strong indicator. In recent years, the Best Picture winner has taken home 3-5 Oscars; this year, I predict there will only be two movies that will accomplish this: ‘The Revenant’, and ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’.

Yes, Alejandro G. Iñárritu won the Best Director and Best Picture Oscar just last year for ‘Birdman’. He is going to pull it off again this year with ‘The Revenant’. If ‘The Revenant’ wins Best Picture, it will be the first time in Oscar history that a director has won for the second time in a row. If Iñárritu takes Best Director, he joins two others (John Ford for ‘The Grapes of Wrath’, and ‘How Green Was My Valley’, and Joe Mankiewicz for ‘A Letter to Three Wives’, and ‘All About Eve’). I don’t think Academy voters are checking up on their Oscar history (even as recent as last year) when submitting their ballots, so Iñárritu’s recent win isn’t going to work against him.

‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ was my (easy) choice for the best film of 2015, so I would love to see it win Best Picture, and would love to see George Miller win Best Director for actualizing the demolition derby of his wildest dreams. The probability of this occurring is very low. ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ will, however, dominate the technical categories and I anticipate it will win more awards than any of the films it is competing against (5 Oscars for ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ – but it deserves 4 more, and 4 for ‘The Revenant’).

There are only two sure bets this year: Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor for ‘The Revenant’, and the Best Animated Film Oscar will go to ‘Inside Out’. The Best Actress Oscar will go to either Brie Larson (‘Room’), or Saoirse Ronan (‘Brooklyn’) – if I were an Academy voter, I’d pick Larson. The Best Supporting Actor category is difficult to predict. Everyone loves a good comeback story – Sylvester Stallone, a Razzie favorite, winning an Oscar for reprising his role as Rocky Balboa, the character he created back in 1976, sounds like a good one. But, the fact that he wasn’t nominated for a SAG means that Mark Rylance could snag this one. The Best Supporting Actress category is equally confounding. My guess is it is between Oscar-veteran Kate Winslet, and first-timer Alicia Vikander (I wish Vikander got the nomination for ‘Ex Machina’ rather than ‘The Danish Girl’). The Best Foreign Language Oscar will likely go to the Grand Prix winner at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, ‘Son of Saul’ (good as the movie was, I’d like to see ‘Mustang’ win this one). The Best Documentary Oscar will go to ‘Amy’ – it was the best of the bunch, and the most widely viewed of the nominees. QED.

 

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